Ghana’s Economic Pulse: Consumer Resilience and Trade Growth Countered by Fiscal Pressures and Construction Slump

Ghana’s economy displayed a complex, mixed-performance landscape during the first two months of 2026, characterized by robust year-on-year growth in consumer spending and international trade alongside significant fiscal challenges. According to the Bank of Ghana’s latest reports, domestic VAT collections for January 2026 reached GH¢1.799 billion, a 7.1% increase compared to the previous year, while retail sales surged by 16.6% to GH¢277.88 million. This positive momentum was mirrored in the transport and trade sectors, where passenger arrivals at Kotoka International Airport rose by 8.7% to 110,087, and container traffic at the Tema and Takoradi harbours grew by 13.6% annually. However, nearly all indicators experienced sharp month-on-month declines in January, a trend largely attributed to the standard cooling of economic activity following the December festive peak.

While the consumer and trade sectors showed resilience, the manufacturing and construction industries presented a more volatile picture. Direct tax collections from manufacturing activities rose by 9.0% year-on-year to GH¢5.802 billion, yet plummeted by 64.4% compared to December 2025. The construction sub-sector faced more structural headwinds, as evidenced by a 7.7% year-on-year decline in cement sales, signaling a slowdown in infrastructure and residential development. This industrial cooling is further reflected in the labor market; job advertisements in February 2026 fell by 4.9% year-on-year to 3,244. Despite fewer new vacancies, the existing workforce showed stability, with the number of private sector contributors to the SSNIT pension scheme rising by 7.1% to over 1.13 million individuals.

On the fiscal front, the government is grappling with persistent appetite issues in the domestic debt market. For the fifth consecutive week, the Treasury bill auction recorded an undersubscription, failing to meet its GH¢4.8 billion target by 8.20%. Although the government accepted GH¢4.0 billion in bids, interest rates across the yield curve continued their upward trajectory. The 91-day bill, which attracted the highest investor interest with GH¢2.55 billion in bids, saw its yield rise to 4.94%, while the 182-day and 364-day bills climbed to 6.90% and 10.12% respectively. This rising cost of borrowing suggests a tightening financial environment as investors demand higher premiums amidst the government's consistent failure to meet short-term funding goals.

The synthesis of these indicators suggests that while Ghana's post-recovery consumption remains strong, the broader economy faces mounting pressure from high borrowing costs and a softening industrial base. The contrast between rising VAT collections and declining job advertisements highlights a potential gap between current consumption and future economic expansion. For policymakers, the immediate challenge lies in stabilizing the domestic debt market and revitalizing the construction sector to ensure that the year-on-year growth seen in trade and retail translates into long-term industrial stability and sustained job creation throughout the remainder of 2026.