ISSER warns of gold dependence despite $10 billion trade surplus

Professor Robert Darko Osei of the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) has cautioned that Ghana’s $10 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2025 masks significant risks due to an over-reliance on gold exports. While the surplus represents a milestone in the country's trade balance, Professor Osei emphasized that the heavy dependence on a single volatile commodity makes the current economic stability precarious. He argued that the reliance on gold leaves the national economy vulnerable to the unpredictable fluctuations of global commodity markets.

The ISSER analysis noted that although macroeconomic indicators have shown improvement, including a reduction in inflation and lower bank lending rates, the benefits are not yet fully felt across the private sector. High borrowing costs continue to hamper the growth of local businesses, preventing them from scaling up and diversifying the economy's output. Professor Osei stressed that for the current economic recovery to be sustainable and inclusive, the government must address these structural barriers to private sector expansion.

To mitigate these risks, ISSER is calling for strategic policy measures focused on enhancing domestic manufacturing and diversifying exports. This includes a push for value addition to raw materials and more robust revenue mobilization strategies. Professor Osei also highlighted the need for transparency in the management of mineral revenues and the importance of building substantial external reserves to act as a buffer against future economic shocks. By prioritizing productive industries, Ghana can move beyond its commodity dependence toward a more resilient and competitive economic framework.