Ghana’s Energy Sector Faces Crisis as Oil Production Hits Record Lows Amid Rising Fuel Price Volatility

Ghana’s petroleum industry is grappling with a significant downturn as the Public Interest Accountability Committee (PIAC) reports a sixth consecutive annual decline in crude oil production. According to the 2025 PIAC Annual Report, output plummeted from a 2019 peak of 71.44 million barrels to just 37.3 million barrels in 2025, representing a compounded annual decline of 9%. This production slump has severely impacted national finances, with crude oil receipts falling by 50.58%—from $843.5 million in 2024 to $416.8 million in 2025. Key oil fields have shown alarming rates of depletion, with the Jubilee Field experiencing a 30.3% drop, while the TEN and SGN fields saw decreases of 14% and 3.6% respectively. PIAC Chairman Richard Ellimah has urgently called for a comprehensive government framework to attract fresh investment and reverse this trend.

Adding to the sector's challenges, domestic fuel prices are coming under renewed pressure despite Ghana currently ranking 15th in Africa for the lowest fuel costs. As of April 2026, gasoline is priced at $1.303 per liter and diesel at $1.1553 per liter. However, the Executive Secretary of the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC), Duncan Amoah, has warned of imminent hikes—potentially up to 10% for petrol and 17% for diesel—following new minimum price floors set by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA). These local increases are exacerbated by global volatility, with Brent crude reaching $95–$97 per barrel due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding US-Iran relations.

Economic experts and industry leaders are divided on the best path forward for stabilizing the economy. Joe Jackson, CEO of Dalex Finance, has strongly rejected calls for fuel tax cuts or subsidies, arguing that such measures could trigger broader inflation, particularly in food logistics, and worsen the nation’s fiscal health. Instead, he advocates for targeted support for vulnerable populations. Meanwhile, Professor Peter Quartey has emphasized the need for a dual approach to investment, urging the government to court both foreign and domestic capital. He noted that the global shift toward renewable energy is making it increasingly difficult to secure fossil fuel funding, necessitating a stronger role for the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) in exploration.

In a move to modernize regional trade, Edmond Kombat, Managing Director of the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), has advocated for the creation of a Sub-Saharan African crude oil pricing benchmark. He argues that moving away from global benchmarks like Brent and WTI would better reflect local market dynamics and shield African nations from external geopolitical shocks. Concurrently, the industry is focusing on operational safety. On April 7, 2026, the NPA and the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) launched Safety Week 2026 under the theme “Manage the Risk Before It Becomes an Incident,” aiming to harmonize health, safety, security, and environmental standards across the downstream sector to prevent infrastructure-related disasters.

Ultimately, the future of Ghana’s petroleum sector depends on a swift regulatory and strategic response. While new discoveries in countries like Libya highlight the continued potential of the African oil market, Ghana must navigate internal production depletion and external price shocks. The consensus among PIAC and other stakeholders is that without a robust strategy to invite new investors and enhance data acquisition for existing fields, the decline in production will continue to erode government revenue and threaten the nation’s energy security. The coming months will be critical as the government weighs fiscal discipline against the urgent need for industrial recovery and price stabilization.